مدل‌سازی روند انباشتگی روی و عدم قطعیت آن در خاک‌های کشاورزی برخی مناطق خشک و نیمه خشک ایران

The task of modern agriculture is to safeguard the production of high quality food, in a sustainable natural environment under the precondition of pollution not exceeding accepted norms. The sustainability of current land use in agro-ecosystems can be assessed with respect to heavy metal accumulation in soils by balancing the input/ output fluxes. The objectives of this study were to model accumulation rate and the associated uncertainty of Zn in the agro-ecosystems of 3 arid and semi-arid provinces (Fars, Isfahan and Qom). Zinc accumulation rates in the agro-ecosystems were computed using a stochastic mass flux assessment (MFA) model with using Latin Hypercube sampling in combination with Monte-Carlo simulation procedures. Agricultural information including crop types, crop area and yield, kind and number of livestock, application rates of mineral fertilizers, compost and sewage sludge and also metal concentration in plants and soil amendments were used to quantify Zn fluxes and Zn accumulation rates. The results indicated that Zn accumulates considerably in agricultural lands of the studied townships especially in Najafabad (3009 g ha-1yr-1). The major Zn input routes to the agricultural soils (and due to agricultural activities) were manure and mineral fertilizers and the major part of the uncertainty in the Zn accumulation rate resulted from manure source.